April 28, 2025 Monday Touch Point: Austin Real Estate Market Update
Dan Price, Broker at Team Price Real Estate

Record-High Inventory: A Buyer’s Market Brewing : The Austin real estate market is hitting unprecedented levels of inventory. As of today, we’re at 16,095 active listings across the six-county area (Travis, Williamson, Bastrop, Hayes, Caldwell, and Burnet)—a record high going back 20 years. That’s up 184 listings since Friday and 1,954 in the past month, a 13.82% month-over-month increase. Year-over-year, active listings are up 23.2%, with 2,253 more listings than April 2024.

What does this mean? The new listing-to-pending ratio, our most reliable leading indicator, is at a chilly 0.42 for the week, signaling a substantial increase in inventory. For the month, it’s at 0.54, the lowest April ratio since 2003. This imbalance—more listings flooding the market than being absorbed—puts downward pressure on prices. Buyers, you’re gaining leverage, especially as we head into May, June, and July.

Price Drops Surge: Sellers Face Reality : Sellers, brace yourselves. Of the 16,095 active listings, 48.6% have seen price drops, and 93% of price movements this week were decreases. Month-to-date, we’ve logged 6,668 price decreases compared to just 591 increases, a 92% downward trend. This mirrors October 2024’s 94% price drop percentile, signaling a softening market. Historically, June and July mark the end of the selling season, prompting sellers to slash prices. Expect this cycle to repeat, with significant price drops in August and September closings. Last year, this led to a decent Q3 and Q4 as buyers capitalized on lower prices. Could it happen again? Absolutely, but it hinges on inflation data and Fed rate decisions.

Bond Market and Economic Data: A Wild Week Ahead : The bond market is a rollercoaster, with yields fluctuating wildly this morning. This week is pivotal, with 180 S&P 500 companies, including Apple, Google, and Meta, reporting earnings. Key economic data drops include unemployment figures, personal consumption expenditure (PCE), and the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. These will shape the Fed’s stance on rates, which could lower in Q3 or Q4 if inflation cools and tariffs stabilize. IBM’s $150 billion U.S. investment announcement today underscores economic shifts impacting real estate. Agents and clients, stay glued to these updates—they’ll dictate mortgage rates and market sentiment.

Hyper-Local Markets: Opportunities Amid Chaos : Austin’s market is bifurcated. While overall sales are down 26.3% in the last 30 days, the top 25th percentile of homes saw a 3.4% price increase, while the bottom 25th percentile dropped 2.9%. Seven of the top 30 cities, like Georgetown (78633), are still in a seller’s market, while eight, including Leander, lean toward buyers. Zip code 78737 hit a 12-month activity index high, while 78641 cratered. Sellers, hyper-local data is your lifeline. Properties in hot zip codes are still fetching multiple offers, with 15% of April sales closing above list price. Buyers, areas like 78604 offer abundant options as activity slows.

Predictions and Advice: Navigate with Confidence : Looking ahead, inventory will keep climbing, and prices will face pressure through September. Sold properties for April are projected at 2,650, down from 3,000 last year. However, lower prices and potential rate cuts could spark a Q3/Q4 rebound, as seen in 2023 and 2024. Buyers, hold tight for better deals. Sellers, price competitively now or risk chasing the market down later. Agents, dive into our updated resources at teamprice.com. The new listing-to-pending ratio and market performance reports are live, offering macro-level insights like the inventory stress index. Stay sharp, leverage data, and let’s make this market work for our clients.

FAQs

What is the new listing-to-pending ratio, and why does it matter?

The new listing-to-pending ratio compares new and back-on-market listings to active under contract and pending sales. A low ratio (e.g., 0.42) signals rising inventory, favoring buyers and pressuring prices.

Why are price drops increasing in Austin’s real estate market?

With 16,095 active listings and a 0.54 monthly ratio, supply outpaces demand, forcing sellers to reduce prices. Currently, 48.6% of listings have seen price drops.

Which Austin areas are still in a seller’s market?

Seven of the top 30 cities, like Georgetown (78633), remain seller’s markets, with strong demand and higher sold-to-list price ratios, despite the broader market cooling.

How will bond market activity affect Austin homebuyers?

Bond market volatility, driven by earnings reports and economic data like PCE, influences mortgage rates. Rate cuts in Q3/Q4 could make buying more affordable if inflation stabilizes.

What should sellers do in a high-inventory market?

Price competitively and target hyper-local markets with strong demand, like 78737. Use Team Price’s market performance reports to position your listing effectively.

Daily Market Summary

16,095 (+23.2% YoY) : Active Residential Listings

0.42 Ratio : New Listing to Pending Ratio

97.76% : Sold Price to List Price Ratio

6.750% :  30-Year Weekly Mortgage Rate

4.213% : 10-Year Bond Yield

Timestamps 

0:00:00 Welcome to April 28, 2025 Monday Touch Point

0:00:06 Austin Real Estate Market Overview

0:00:43 Friday Zoom Meeting Announcement

0:01:00 Bond Market Volatility and Economic Data

0:01:27 S&P 500 Earnings and Magnificent 7

0:02:09 New Listing-to-Pending Ratio Explained

0:04:50 Open House Surge: 3,877 in 7 Days

0:06:23 Price Drops Hit 93% Percentile

0:09:10 Weekly Ratio at 0.42: Market Cools

0:10:07 Record-High 14,145 Active Listings

0:12:35 April Sales: 1,790 Properties Sold

0:15:17 Year-over-Year Inventory Up 18.9%

0:23:52 Lowest April Ratio Since 2003

0:26:27 Pending Transactions Down 25%

0:32:48 Q3/Q4 Outlook: Price Drops and Rate Cuts?

The April 28, 2025 Monday Touch Point highlighted Austin’s record-high 16,095 active listings, a 0.42 weekly new listing-to-pending ratio, and 93% of price movements as decreases. The bond market faces volatility with key economic data and 180 S&P 500 earnings reports this week. Hyper-local markets show mixed trends, with opportunities for buyers and sellers. Stay informed at https://teamprice.com/insight-and-statistics!​